Francese Ties Healthy Economy to Community Preservation

At times inspiring, at times frightening, and in the end encouraging, nationally-known demographer Peter Francese's keynote address at the Preservation Alliance's recent conference, Saving Community Landmarks and Landscapes left participants with plenty of food for thought. His talk underscored that New Hampshire's economic future will depend largely on how well each community preserves its distinctive character, provides affordable housing and safeguards the state's uniquely attractive and livable environment.

Francese, of Exeter, has more than 30 years of experience writing and speaking about demographic trends and consumer marketing. He is the author of two books on marketing, was the co-founder of one of the nation's first demographic information firms, and founder of American Demographics magazine. He currently writes a monthly column for that magazine and is the demographic trend analyst for the firm of Ogilvy & Mather.

Francese cited the following growth trends in New Hampshire:

• New Hampshire's population is increasing at less than 1 percent a year; growth is slowing.
• Virtually all growth will be among older adults and due mostly to in-migrants.
• Three-quarters of all projected growth from 2005-2015 will be in New Hampshire's four largest counties (Hillsborough, Rockingham, Merrimack and Strafford)
• All but three counties (Strafford, Cheshire and Sullivan) are expected to grow more slowly than in the 1990s

Significant Granite State aging trends Francese noted are:

• The sharp decline in 35-44-year-olds, half of whom are married with children, combined with a lack of affordable housing, hinders our economy - this group spends twice as much in retail purchases as other age groups and forms the basis of our workforce

• The state's highest growth is in the 55-74-year-old bracket, many of whom are second home owners (New Hampshire is third in the nation in the percentage of second homes).
• Rapid growth in the older population offers a good pool for fundraising for community projects.

Most new homes are located in suburban or rural areas away from town centers, Francese warned. Present development patterns often wipe out open space, seldom create any affordable housing, and can cost more than redeveloping existing structures or compact new development.

Town centers with housing are more economically attractive. The costs of sprawl include higher per capita expenditures for municipal services and lost or stranded investment when school and municipal facilities are relocated to mere distant sites - all resulting in higher taxes.

Municipal leaders also often try to limit housing for families based on misconceptions about cost, and the resulting limited supply of housing increasingly excludes these significant contributors to our economy. On the other hand, the small size of New Hampshire's school districts place excessive burdens on municipalities. Francese suggested a state-level task force to examine the interrelationship of these complex issues and develop strategies to address social and economic goals.